An Insight into the Novel CoronaVirus Fatality Rate
Posted on 08 Mar 2020; 02:00 AM IST. Last Updated 08 Mar 2020; 03:30 PM IST.Summary: The fatality rate of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) appears to be variable. This article attempts to summarize the situations, that can affect the fatality rate of the virus.
Introduction:
The novel coronavirus is exhibiting different fatality rates in different geographic locations. This variability raised many concerns and is probably the cause for much of the fear and confusion around it, since the numbers reported by one country, do not match the numbers in another country. President Trump believes the numbers provided by World Health Organization (WHO) are inaccurate (details are availabe at this weblink https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number). This article summarizes the differences between the the figures reported by the various countries.
Analysis:
A brief analysis of the data, revealed the following figures. The data for conducting the analysis was obtained from the website located at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (as of March 07, 2020, 18:03 GMT).
|
Infected |
Deceased | Fatality rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 80,652 | 3070 | 3.81% |
| Iran | 5823 | 145 | 2.49% |
| S. Korea | 7041 | 48 | 0.68% |
| USA* | 365 | 2 | 0.55% |
| India | 34 | 0 | 0.00% |
Discussion:
- The fatality rate in China (3.81%) was higher because China awoke suddenly to the crisis, and its Healthcare Systems were probably overwhelmed.
- The fatality rate in Iran (2.49%) is much higher than seasonal flu (0.1% fatality rate), and this is probably due to lower Healthcare standards.
- The fatality rate at South Korea and USA are very close, but 6 times that of seasonal flu. This figure (which is roughly 0.6%) is probably the lowest damage the virus could inflict, when there are robust healthcare facilities, and when these facilities are not overwhelmed.
- The fatality rate in India is dead zero right now, but this could progressively change to a scenario like USA, then to Iranian scenario, and finally like in China, unless India fights very hard to prevent cluster formations.
Conclusion:
The fatality rate (3.4%) for the novel coronavirus (Covid19) provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), is not inaccurate, but describes the scenario, when a country slides into a chaotic situation, for whatever reasons, but still has an ability to put up a hard fight against the disease. This figure (roughly), corresponds to the fatality rate (3.81%) observed in China. If a country fails to put up a hard fight like China, for whatever reasons, after sliding into a chaotic situation, the fatality rate could go even higher than what the World Health Organization (WHO) has predicted.
The novel coronovirus (covid-19), is by no means a simple flu, but a highly fatal disease, which makes its appearance, in the disguise of ordinary flu. The earlier the World leaders realize this fact, the better it is for the World.
* Note-1: Counts for USA exclude "Washington State".